Yes, it’s true that Utah is reporting 10.1% of its cases are “breakthrough” cases, or cases in people who are vaccinated.
First, take that number with a grain of salt - it sounds like Utah counts breakthrough cases in anyone who has a single dose of the MMR vaccine, not just people who are fully vaccinated with two doses. Some of these cases may only have one dose, which is less protective.
The big story here is that some of those 49 breakthrough cases – “fewer than 11”, per a spokesperson – are healthcare workers, some of whom came to work while symptomatic, because they didn’t know that it was possible to get sick if they were vaccinated.
Here’s the deal: The MMR vaccine works extremely well, but no vaccine is perfect. If you’re fully vaccinated, you’re about 35x less likely to get the measles than someone who isn’t. But even if you have two doses, you can still get the measles, especially if you’re in very close contact with someone who is actively infected over a long period of time. That’s particularly common for healthcare workers and people in the same household as someone else who’s sick, often an unvaccinated child.
BUT there’s good news: even if a vaccinated person gets the measles, they’re much less likely to have severe illness, and much much less likely to end up in the hospital. And vaccinated people can still spread measles, but it’s very rare. We’ve only seen a few cases of this.
As measles cases increase, we’ll naturally see more breakthrough infections. It’s not a sign that the vaccine doesn’t work, or that the disease is mutating – just a byproduct of so many people in our community having the disease.
Lastly, here’s some important math: about 1 in 10 measles cases in Utah are in fully vaccinated people. But that’s different from the general breakthrough rate for fully vaccinated people – only about 4% of people with two MMR doses will get measles even if they’re exposed. This just goes to show how incredibly infectious measles is. It means there are over 1000 people walking around Utah who would almost certainly have measles if they weren’t fully vaccinated.
Watch below for a great, quick explainer from YLE!
Sources: Epi.Utah.gov, YLE, Utah DHHS, Medpage Today, YLE National
For a great explainer on today’s best question about breakthrough measles cases in Utah, watch YLE's Katelyn Jetelina explain this story in a very short video. It's worth your minute!